Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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Dartmouth 1956: Challenges

  • Machine methods of forming abstractions from sensory and other data
  • Carrying out activities which may best be described as self-improvement
  • Manipulating words according to rules of reasoning and rules of conjecture
  • Developing a theory of the complexity for various aspects of intelligence


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"Hard problems to be solved..."
  • Hard problems to be solved by drawing methods from:
    • Logical reasoning
    • Statistics
    • Cybernetics
    • Information theory
    • Automata theory
    • Pattern recognition
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"Hard problems to be solved..."
  • Hard problems to be solved by drawing methods from:
    • Logical reasoning
    • Statistics
    • Cybernetics
    • Information theory
    • Automata theory
    • Pattern recognition
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Perspective:

Intelligence amidst                  Inescapable Incompleteness
  • Limited agents immersed in large universes
    • Limited representations
    • Limited time and memory
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Perspective:

Intelligence amidst                  Inescapable Incompleteness
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        …and the Bottleneck
  • Economics of computation and memory
  • Flexible computational strategies
  • Phase transitions and hardness
  • Bounded optimality


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Economics of Flexible Computation
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Economics of Flexible Computation
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Economics of Flexible Computation
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Expected Value of Computation
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In Pursuit of Bounded Optimality
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Bounded Optimality not the Goal

à Guide research, build insights
  • Comparative analysis
  • Contributions of innovations
  • Ideal situation-action reflexes
  • Partition of resources to different phases of reasoning
  • Ideal continual computation
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e.g., Continual Computation
  • Policies for continuing to use all available resources all of the time




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Stream of Problem Instances
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Trading Off Present for Future
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Directions and Challenges
  • Integrative intelligence
  • Situated long-lived autonomous systems
  • Learning amidst growing data resources
  • Artificial intelligence in supportive & collaborative roles
  • Learning from neurobiology
  • Our evolving relationship with machines



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Challenge: Integrative Intelligence
  • Sensing & symbols
  • Goals & preferences
  • Learning
  • Real-time reasoning, metareasoning, and compilation
  • Action execution
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Coordinating an Elegant Dance
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"Flexible adaptation to varying tasks"
  • Flexible adaptation to varying tasks,                           situations, environments
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Automated Framing & Execution of Local, High-Precision Decision Problems
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Automated Framing & Execution of Local Decision Problems
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Multi- and Varying Timescales
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"What initial endowment is good..."
    • What initial endowment is good enough for survival but that can be most efficiently adapted with experience?
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"What initial endowment is good..."
    • What initial endowment is good enough for survival but that can be most efficiently adapted with experience?
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Opportunity: Machine Learning in a Data-Rich World
  • Large quantities of data available through new sensors and processes
  • +
  • Advances in tractable machine learning
  • _____________________________________
  • à  Opportunities for insights
  • …..and new applications and services
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Advances in Learning and Adaptation
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Identification of Hidden Variables
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Opportunity:
Building Intention Machines
  • Example: Web search
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Opportunity:
Building Intention Machines
  • Beyond web search
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Learning about Reasoning
  • Opportunity for making reasoning more efficient
  • Identify dead ends
  • Understand and guide heuristic procedures
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Learning about Reasoning
  • Machine learning about ideal restarts of a theorem prover (see Horvitz, et al., Kautz, et al., Ruan, et al.)
  • Grappling with long tail of  satisfiability search
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Learning to Work with the Web
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Learning to Work with the Web
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Learning to Guide
Question-Answering System
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Learning to Guide
Question-Answering System
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Learning to Guide
Question-Answering System
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Mixed-Initiative Interaction
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Mixed-Initiative Interaction
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"20th Century cognitive psychology"
  • 20th Century cognitive psychology:
  • Characterizable limitations & bottlenecks
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Application: Triaging Communications
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Vigilant Systems
  • Ongoing support for safety
    • Smart surveillance
    • Transportation
    • Healthcare
    • …


  • Reasoning about things that surprise people
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Reasoning about Surprises
  • Systems designs to predict when a user would be surprised by events
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Neurobiology and Artificial Intelligence:
From Existence Proofs…to Insights
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Neurobiology and Artificial Intelligence:
From Existence Proofs…to Insights
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