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Understanding the geographic distribution of
species and how species distributions will change in response to
various drivers of environmental change is one of the fundamental
problems of biodiversity science. In recent years, ecological
niche modelling has been used to forecast effects of global climate
change on species’ geographic distributions. These forecasting
processes require diverse operations on heterogeneous datasets
(primary biodiversity data, raster climate data, raster land use
data, raster vegetation index data, and climate change scenarios)
and application of a variety of computational steps (database
management, quality control, ecological niche modeling,
place-prioritization algorithms) on several platforms to obtain the
final product.
This burgeoning field has developed largely
without a theoretical framework or a rigorous baseline of known
performance evaluation. This project will advance the conceptual
basis of this field by developing a rigorous methodology to evaluate
different approaches by designing and constructing virtual
environments where all relevant variables can be controlled. Current
algorithms will be tested and improved by extensive testing carried
out in these virtual environments. If needed, new algorithms may be
developed.
The project will also develop and implement
scientific workflows to carry out these complex analyses in an
accessible, user-friendly environment. A first application
will be to predict effects of climate change on the biodiversity of
Mexican cloud forests. This project will be the first to apply large
databases of primary biodiversity data and cutting-edge analytical
methods to this threatened and endangered ecosystem. More
importantly, it will develop both theoretical and computational
frameworks for broad application of this overall approach. The
result will be an analytical environment that supports diverse
forecasting applications for complex biodiversity phenomena.
Research Team
-
Jorge Soberón (Biodiversity Research Center,
The University of Kansas)
- A. Townsend Peterson (Biodiversity Research
Center, The University of Kansas)
- Raúl Jiménez (Comisión Nacional para el Uso y
Conocimiento de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), México)
-
Rich Williams (Microsoft Research)
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