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Call for Proposals: Modelling and Predicting in Biology and Earth Sciences 2006

Creating prototypes of new kinds of conceptual and technological tools – tools that are motivated by a specific need in scientific research and with the potential to significantly advance science.


This call was motivated by the Towards 2020 Science report, which outlines the convergence of computer science and the natural sciences towards 2020. The implications of the report are further discussed in a special issue of Nature inspired by the report [Nature 440 (7083); 23 March 2006].

A crucial observation of the Towards 2020 Science report is that concepts, theorems and tools developed within computer science are now being developed into new conceptual tools and technological tools of potentially profound importance, with wide-ranging applications outside the subject in which they originated, especially in sciences investigating complex systems, most notably in biology, chemistry and earth sciences.

Microsoft Research selected 3 proposals aimed at creating prototypes of new kinds of conceptual and technological tools – tools that are motivated by a specific need in scientific research and with the potential to significantly advance science. Priority was given to investigations into two broad global challenges:

  • Earth’s Life Support System including both abiotic subsystems (e.g., geophysics and climate research) and biotic subsystems (e.g., biodiversity and ecosystems), and their interaction.
  • Biology in a broad sense, including synthetic, systems and organismic biology.

From a computational perspective the following methods of handling complexity and integrating theory, experiment and models were of major importance:

  • Statistical approaches, in particular machine learning, to predict the properties and behaviour of a system when the complexity of the domain, or the absence of sufficiently precise models at the appropriate level of description, prohibit a first-principles simulation with any current or conceivable future level of computational resource. Also, the development of machine learning tools suitable for the informed analysis of vast and/or heterogeneous datasets to assist in hypothesis generation.
  • Codification of scientific knowledge about complex systems, i.e. turning knowledge into a coded representation, in terms of data or programs, that is mechanically executable and analysable, or made suitable for efficient and informed modelling.

Award Recipients

Development and application of a computerized and automated method for cell lineage analysis
Ehud Shapiro, Weizmann Institute of Science, Israel

A multi-cellular organism develops from a single cell – the zygote, through numerous cell divisions and cell deaths to display an astonishing complexity of trillions of cells of different types, residing in different tissues and expressing different genes. This complex developmental program is still mostly unknown. The question of lineage relations between the cells of an organism is of interest not only in the field of developmental Biology but also in fields such as cancer research and stem-cell research, where processes of tissue maintenance and tumour formation are still largely unknown. Extant methods to reconstruct lineage relations are very limited and usually invasive. Our group developed a method for reconstructing the lineage relations among cells of a multicellular organism. The method is based on the fact that somatic mutations accumulated during normal development of a higher organism contain information that enable to reconstruct the organism cell lineage tree. The systems takes as input DNA samples, processes them using a liquid handling laboratory robot, analyzes the signals obtained from a capillary electrophoresis machine to detect mutations, processes the mutations using a phylogenetic algorithm, and outputs a tree representing the lineage relations between the samples from which DNA was obtained. We have proved this system in an initial study that analyzed artificial ex-vivo cell trees. We are now embarking on a large scale collaborative study - the 'Mouse Cell Lineage Project', whose aim will be to reconstruct the entire mouse cell lineage tree. This task poses unique and challenging algorithmic and theoretical problems of making statistical inferences on cellular populations, inferring the relations between lineage and tissue locations, geometric location and gene expression, detecting lineage boundaries and devising novel strategies for phylogenetic reconstructions. While as the lineage challenge resembles problems that have been addressed in the fields of population genetics and species phylogenetics, it has unique characteristics that necessitate novel mathematical models and algorithms. Thus whereas mathematical and algorithmic work has reached profound advances in the fields of inter-species and intra-species phylogenetics, the aim of this work will be to lay the foundation of a new scientific field – cellular phylogenetics. The fruits of this collaborative biological and computational project will be an understanding of developmental programs and of tissue maintenance processes, both normal and following disease, in complex multi-cellular organisms. This will have a profound biological and medical impact.

Analysis of animal ecological and social networks with programmable sensor nodes
Klaus Wehrle, RWTH Aachen University, Germany

Natural behaviour of animals takes place in complex environments, allowing for a wealth of social and ecological interactions. While laboratory studies have been extremely useful to identify individual mechanisms of behaviour, the functioning of such behaviour in natural environments is still only poorly understood. Efficient means of animal monitoring in the wild as well as tools for modelling complex systems are required for a deeper understanding of phenomena such as spatial cognition, optimal foraging, social behaviour and learning, or multi-species interactions. Current telemetric approaches to animal monitoring are often limited by the range and bandwidth of radio-transmission, especially in large, subterranean, or under-water environments. In this project, we will develop a novel system for animal surveillance in the wild, using tiny sensor node technology. Programmable sensor nodes with a multitude of sensing capabilities attached to the animals will record data such as motion, vocalizations, and body temperature of the carrier. Upon encounter of another animal, sensor nodes interact, exchange and aggregate data on the time and participants of the meeting. Stationary base nodes at occasionally visited, but easily accessible locations will be used to collect the animal data for further analysis, including trajectory reconstruction, daily activity profiles, and interaction graphs. The project brings together experience in sensor network technology (both hard- and software development) and animal experimentation (behavioural experiments in virtual reality, transponder systems for outdoor monitoring). Initial experiments will deal with laboratory rats exploring burrow-like tube systems, while further work will extend to subterranean and outdoor settings. The final monitoring system will be instrumental in elucidating social and ecological interactions in hard-to-observe animals including subterranean or marine mammals and cave-dwellers such as bats and flying foxes. Sensor networks will be employed to acquire data which are out of reach for conventional methods.

Bayesian System Identification for Biological Pathway Modelling
Mark Girolami, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom

Biological pathway models form the basis of what is referred to as Systems Biology where biological systems are modelled mathematically and their behaviours, under varying simulated conditions, are studied in assessing the validity of a particular hypothesis regarding the nature of the system. Much hope is placed on the synergistic advances which will be made by the interplay between abstracted modelling and experimental investigation within a systems biology context. Biochemical pathway models are highly parameterised systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODE) which will exhibit a potentially diverse set of behaviours dependent upon the values of these parameters. The values of parameters such as kinetic rate constants are largely unknown or at best have been ill-defined experimentally. The current widely accepted methodology for system identification are simple non-probabilistic parameter fitting methods such as least-squares which fail to fully identify such models and characterise the uncertainty in the experimental data, the model topology, parameter values and subsequent predictions made by the model. The adoption of a Bayesian viewpoint in developing pathway models allows full characterisation and analysis of all model uncertainty and provides a consistent way in which to reason about models and subsequent experimental design. This project proposes the development of computational tools for biochemical pathway modelling which will employ full Bayesian inference for system identification and which will overcome the major weaknesses associated with the non-probabilistic methodologies current in systems biology.

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