Time Criticality for Shuttle Propulsion
p(Shrapnel)
Seconds Continue During Propellant Failure
5
0
1
2
3
4
1.0
0.5
p(Engine Damaged)
* p(Vehicle Lost | Engine Damaged, No Shrapnel,C
1
) = .5
* p(Vehicle Lost | Engine Damaged, Shrapnel, C
1
) = .8
Barry and Horvitz (1993)
Eric Horvitz, April 5, 2003
Horvitz & Barry, 95