Greg Cooper, Eric Horvitz, Renwick Curry
Keywords: Goal understanding, probability, uncertainty management, Bayesian networks, control of display, temporal reasoning.
Technical Memorandum NAS2-12381, NASA-Ames Research Center, Mountain View, CA, February 1988.
As part of this work, we constructed a prototype system that reasoned under uncertainty over time about a pilot's goals, given phase of flight and additional observations, such as pilot activity and radar findings. Here are some snapshots from the prototype. The first graph shows the likelihood of three competing goals over time given the prior probabilities and information about the phase of flight.
The likelihood of alternate goals can change with information about the pilot's behavior or from such classes of evidence as communication with air traffic control and radar results.
The following screen shot shows how the probabilities of the goals are revised in an identical run except for the presence of two additional pieces of evidence, observed in adjacent periods. The first observation is present and has a duration of 1 between time periods 6 and 7, and the second is present between periods 7 and 8.
G.F. Cooper, E.J. Horvitz, D.E. Heckerman, A Method for Temporal Probabilistic Reasoning, Technical Report 88-30. Knowledge Systems Laboratory, Stanford University, July 1988.