Who will be the next President of United States?

PREDICTION OF UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, 2012

This is an experiment about how accurate we can predict who will win the 2012 United States presidential election by leveraging the *BIG Web Data*. We do not use any advanced models or algorithms to do the prediction. Instead, we just use “WebSensors” to collect data from diverse Web data sources and do simple statistics. Let us wait till November 6, 2012 to see how well we can do.

Methods:

1. Authoritative Data

  • Top search results from Bing.com for related queries
  • Top search results of related queries from several news website, such as cnn, msnbc, yahoo, abcnews, aol, et al.

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2. Social Data

  • Related posts and update stream from facebook.com
  • Related twittes from twitter.com

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3. Grassroot Data

  • Comments of top news about 2012 presidential election from news.yahoo.com
  • Comments of top news about 2012 presidential election from cnn.com

Latest Result

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Other Predictions

Polls

Microsoft Research Asia, Web Search and Data Mining Group

Contacts: Zhicheng Dou (zhichdou@microsoft.com), Ji-Rong Wen (jrwen@microsoft.com)