Predictions of populations responses to climate change have largely centred around bioclimate models. Bioclimate modelling has afforded conservation biology a means to rapidly and extensively assess the distribution of climate change’s threat to populations. However there are numerous conflicts between the assumptions and biological reality. Parameter estimation techniques may allow ecological reality to enter climate change predictions.
- Mark C Vanderwel and Drew W Purves, How do disturbances and environmental heterogeneity affect the pace of forest distribution shifts under climate change?, in Ecography, Wiley, June 2013