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Prediction Engines

Speaker  Robin Hanson and Sanmay Das

Affiliation  Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, George Mason University

Host  David Pennock

Duration  00:56:18

Date recorded  15 July 2013

From crowdsourcing to data-driven models, technology offers new ways to collect and aggregate information on an unprecedented scale, allowing researchers to make reliable predictions about elections, policy, corporate decisions, economics, finance, sports, and entertainment.

This session of the 2013 Microsoft Research Faculty Summit reports on progress in the science and engineering of polls, prediction markets, and forecast models. Examples include a fundamental model that correctly predicted 49 of 50 states nine months before the US Presidential election, and combinatorial prediction markets capable of estimating billions of complex predictions like correlations between states.

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