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Predictive Models of Forest Dynamics

Drew W Purves and Stephen W Pacala


Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.


Publication typeArticle
Published inScience

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Rosie Fisher, Nate McDowell, Drew Purves, Paul Moorcroft, Stephen Sitch, Peter Cox, Chris Huntingford, Patrick Meir, and F. Ian Woodward. Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model due to ecological scale limitations, New Phytologist, August 2010.

Mark C Vanderwel, Vassily S Lyutsarev, and Drew W Purves. Climate-related variation in mortality and recruitment determine regional forest-type distributions, Global Ecology and Biogeography, Wiley, 4 June 2013.

Emily R Lines, David A Coomes, and Drew Purves. Influences of Forest Structure, Climate and Species Composition on Tree Mortality across the Eastern US, PLoS-One, PLoS, October 2010.

Mark C Vanderwel, David A Coomes, and Drew W Purves. Quantifying variation in forest disturbance, and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics, across the eastern United States, Global Change Biology, Wiley, January 2013.

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