Self-Financed Wagering Mechanisms for Forecasting

Nicolas Lambert, John Langford, Jennifer Wortman, Yiling Chen, Daniel Reeves, Yoav Shoham, and David Pennock

Abstract

We examine a class of wagering mechanisms designed to elicit truthful predictions from a group of people without requiring any outside subsidy. We propose a number of desirable properties for wagering mechanisms, identifying one mechanism—weighted-score wagering—that satisfies all of the properties. Moreover, we show that a single-parameter generalization of weighted-score wagering is the only mechanism that satisfies these properties. We explore some variants of the core mechanism based on practical considerations.

Details

Publication typeInproceedings
Published inNinth ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC)
URLhttp://www.jennwv.com/papers/wagering.pdf
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