Real Time Destination Prediction Based on Efficient Routes

John Krumm


This paper presents a novel method for predicting the

location of a driver’s destination during the drive. Such a

prediction can be used to help decide which information

to automatically present to the driver, depending on

where the driver is going. The prediction is based on the

common intuition that drivers tend to chose efficient

routes. We quantify this preference for efficiency

probabilistically based on a database of driving trips we

gathered with GPS receivers. We show how to use this

probability along with a map of driving times to compute

the probability of any candidate destination. Our tests

show that halfway through the drive, we can predict the

destination to within about 10 km, and at three quarters

of the way, the error drops to about 3 km.


Publication typeInproceedings
Published inSociety of Automotive Engineers (SAE) 2006 World Congress
PublisherSociety of Automotive Engineers (SAE)
> Publications > Real Time Destination Prediction Based on Efficient Routes