ACM 97 "The Next 50 Years" On-line version produced by Microsoft Research and Dog & Pony Studios

Laws of Predictions

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Laws of Predictions

Laws of Predictions

I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.

Harvard Mark I aka IBM ASCC

Predictions require some history.

Navy Delphi Panel1969

I’ll bet we’ll be manufacturing cores in 1980.

A technology can come from nowhere and wipe you out!

Moore’s Law 60%/yr. Memory -- 4 x size every 3 years

Moore’s Law predicts 2.55 PetaBytes/chip in 30 years. On 1/97 a U.of Minn. team stored one electron in a cell at this density.

Top 108 reasons we predict

Top 108 reasons we predict

Top 108 reasons we predict

Top 108 reasons we predict

Top 108 reasons we predict

Top 108 reasons we predict

AT&T will not have screwed up its purchase of NCR by 1996.

By 1997 Video-on-Demand will be available and operating in six cities and...

By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.

For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist.

For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist.

Gordon Bell “ Future of Computing” at MIT, 1972

Progress will continue for just 6 more years!

Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!

Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

“Everything will be in Cyberspace”

Cyberspace: A Network of ... Networks of ...

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks?

Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space

Some more Laws from failed predictions to guide the journey into Cyberspace

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.

UNIX is Snake Oil.

I wouldn’t put my company on the Internet.

Equating yourself to the average“user/buyer” is risky . . . unless you’re an average user.

Navy Delphi Panel Bernstein, 1969

Speech systems will be commercialized because all significant steps have been made.

ISDN will be ubiquitousby 1985.

Network bandwidth becomes available slower than the most conservative prediction.

We under-estimate the devastating power ofcompanies & planners, lawyers & government, to foul up predictions.

Parallel processing computer architectures will be in use by 1975.

In Dec. 1995 computers with 1,000 processors will do most of the scientific processing.

DARPA, 1985 Strategic Computing Initiative (SCI)

Bell Prize winners 1987-1997

Petaflops by 2010

Parallel processing is a constant distance away.

Vannevar Bush c1945

Steve ManninCyberspace

Moore’s Law is based on data and understanding.

Predicting with datawhen change is exponential

2. New overtakes old

3. Things get cheaper

4. Newer & cheaper wins?

Bob Lucky, Vice President Bellcore, 1995

Exponentials change everything

Internetters growth

Internetters growth

Computing and communication predictions: processing, memory, and networks

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

Microprocessor performance

Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year

New overtakes old

Processor performance

Things get cheaper

Computers by price are stable. Lower priced computers form!

Newer & cheaper wins?

“The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!”

Predictable computers

CMU wearable computers

MedtronicsImplantedCardioplastic

4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997

Observations on predicting

Everything will be in cyberspace

Author: Gordon Bell

Home Page: http://research.microsoft.com/acm97/

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This talk was given at ACM 97. It was prepared for on-line viewing by Microsoft Research and Dog & Pony Studios. Contact: jgemmell@microsoft.com

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